AI Predictions Methodology

BetLogic combines fixture data, score state, team context, recent form, head-to-head information, standings context and market-specific grading rules where available.

AI Match Preview content is editorial context only. It is separate from Match Tips and must not show betting markets, probabilities or odds recommendations.

• AI can summarize match context and help organize research.
• AI cannot know the future or remove uncertainty from football results.
• AI predictions can be wrong, even when confidence labels appear strong.
• BetLogic does not promise profit, remove betting risk or promise winning outcomes.

Users may move from Daily Matches to bonus comparison, but the two areas stay editorially separate. Bonus pages help users compare operator terms; they do not make predictions more certain.

Where BetLogic grades settled tips, pending, live, void or ungraded states are excluded from landed-rate calculations unless the underlying logic explicitly supports them.

BetLogic keeps its internal model score separate from public confidence. Public confidence is a versioned projection built from canonical settled Main Tips, not a forward-learning rule or a bookmaker price.

The mapping is monotone across broad confidence bands and is fitted on earlier settled evidence, then evaluated on a later held-out period. An exact calibrated confidence is shown only when its band has enough training and held-out evidence and the held-out calibration gap is at most five percentage points.

When evidence is thin, BetLogic shows a confidence band and the historical landed rate for similar settled Main Tips instead of an exact percentage. A finished match presents its result and whether the pre-match tip landed, missed or was voided; pre-match confidence is never presented as the result.

For supported 1X2 Main Tips, BetLogic compares the landed rate with the bookmaker probability captured in the immutable pre-decision context snapshot. API-Football Match Winner odds are converted to implied home, draw and away probabilities, each bookmaker's overround is removed, and the resulting probabilities are averaged before the prediction decision is made.

The stored 1X2 values are already margin-free, so they are validated as a probability triplet and are not normalized again. BetLogic maps Home Win, Away Win, 1X, X2 and 12 to that triplet; goals, BTTS and ambiguous proposition names are excluded from this phase.

Market coverage means supported settled 1X2 Main Tips with a valid decision-time market probability divided by all supported settled 1X2 Main Tips. Actual and market-implied hit rates use exactly the same covered rows. The bookmaker Brier score is the mean squared difference between that probability and the landed outcome, where lower is better.

BetLogic does not currently publish its own Brier score: the qualified public confidence mapping is a band-level display contract, not a retrospective per-selection probability scorecard. ROI is unavailable unless a real decision-time decimal bookmaker price was stored; it is never reconstructed from implied probability or final results.