Prediction Transparency
BetLogic Prediction Performance
A transparent record of BetLogic Main Tips from completed matches, compared on the same covered selections with the decision-time bookmaker market baseline. Void and unresolved tips never inflate a hit-rate denominator.
Tracking since 18 May 2026 · Updated through 7 October 2026
Performance windows
7 days
Overall Main Tip hit rate 74.1%
83/112 landed · Overall Main Tip hit rate
Market-covered cohort unavailable · 0 covered
0.0% market coverage · 0/65 eligible 1X2 tips
Incomplete market sample: this comparison covers 60% or less of eligible 1X2 Main Tips.
Bookmaker Brier unavailable — no covered market rows.
BetLogic Brier unavailable — no canonical decision-time BetLogic probability is stored (P1.2).
ROI unavailable — decision-time decimal odds were not stored for this sample.
30 days
Overall Main Tip hit rate 71.3%
398/558 landed · Overall Main Tip hit rate
Market-covered cohort: BetLogic 70.9% vs Market 67.5% · +3.4 pp
25.4% market coverage · 79/311 eligible 1X2 tips
Incomplete market sample: this comparison covers 60% or less of eligible 1X2 Main Tips.
Bookmaker Brier 0.1777 (lower is better)
BetLogic Brier unavailable — no canonical decision-time BetLogic probability is stored (P1.2).
ROI unavailable — decision-time decimal odds were not stored for this sample.
90 days
Overall Main Tip hit rate 72.4%
1656/2286 landed · Overall Main Tip hit rate
Market-covered cohort: BetLogic 70.9% vs Market 67.5% · +3.4 pp
4.2% market coverage · 79/1881 eligible 1X2 tips
Incomplete market sample: this comparison covers 60% or less of eligible 1X2 Main Tips.
Bookmaker Brier 0.1777 (lower is better)
BetLogic Brier unavailable — no canonical decision-time BetLogic probability is stored (P1.2).
ROI unavailable — decision-time decimal odds were not stored for this sample.
All time
Overall Main Tip hit rate 73.4%
2038/2776 landed · Overall Main Tip hit rate
Market-covered cohort: BetLogic 70.9% vs Market 67.5% · +3.4 pp
3.4% market coverage · 79/2356 eligible 1X2 tips
Incomplete market sample: this comparison covers 60% or less of eligible 1X2 Main Tips.
Bookmaker Brier 0.1777 (lower is better)
BetLogic Brier unavailable — no canonical decision-time BetLogic probability is stored (P1.2).
ROI unavailable — decision-time decimal odds were not stored for this sample.
All-time breakdowns
Breakdowns use the same canonical Main Tip record and the same covered-row rule as the headline comparison. Market coverage uses only supported 1X2 selections; goals and other propositions are excluded rather than treated as missing market prices.
Performance by market
| Group | Evidence | Landed | Missed | Void | Settled sample | Actual hit rate | Market baseline | Difference | Covered / eligible | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double Chance | Strong evidence | 1729 | 593 | 0 | 2322 | 70.1% | 70.2% | -0.0 pp | 67/2322 | 2.9% · incomplete |
| Goals | Strong evidence | 260 | 110 | 0 | 370 | — | — | — | 0/0 | — |
| Both Teams to Score | Eligible evidence | 28 | 22 | 0 | 50 | — | — | — | 0/0 | — |
| Match Result | Building evidence | 21 | 13 | 0 | 34 | 75.0% | 52.3% | +22.7 pp | 12/34 | 35.3% · incomplete |
Performance by competition
| Group | Landed | Missed | Void | Settled sample | Actual hit rate | Market baseline | Difference | Covered / eligible | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 UEFA Europa Conference League | 168 | 66 | 0 | 234 | — | — | — | 0/219 | 0.0% · incomplete |
| Major League SoccerUSA | 151 | 50 | 0 | 201 | 85.7% | 65.2% | +20.5 pp | 7/152 | 4.6% · incomplete |
| FA CupEngland | 98 | 44 | 0 | 142 | 0.0% | 50.3% | -50.3 pp | 2/61 | 3.3% · incomplete |
| Serie ABrazil | 90 | 32 | 0 | 122 | 71.4% | 69.1% | +2.4 pp | 7/108 | 6.5% · incomplete |
 UEFA Nations League | 70 | 34 | 0 | 104 | 100.0% | 82.1% | +17.9 pp | 2/71 | 2.8% · incomplete |
| World Cup | 87 | 13 | 0 | 100 | — | — | — | 0/95 | 0.0% · incomplete |
| Friendlies | 77 | 19 | 0 | 96 | — | — | — | 0/94 | 0.0% · incomplete |
 UEFA Champions League | 64 | 27 | 0 | 91 | — | — | — | 0/81 | 0.0% · incomplete |
 UEFA Europa League | 69 | 22 | 0 | 91 | 83.3% | 55.2% | +28.1 pp | 6/81 | 7.4% · incomplete |
| Liga Profesional ArgentinaArgentina | 58 | 30 | 0 | 88 | — | — | — | 0/79 | 0.0% · incomplete |
 La LigaSpain | 55 | 24 | 0 | 79 | 60.0% | 65.8% | -5.8 pp | 10/64 | 15.6% · incomplete |
| Jupiler Pro LeagueBelgium | 65 | 12 | 0 | 77 | 83.3% | 71.3% | +12.1 pp | 6/60 | 10.0% · incomplete |
| AllsvenskanSweden | 48 | 21 | 0 | 69 | — | — | — | 0/67 | 0.0% · incomplete |
| ChampionshipEngland | 43 | 23 | 0 | 66 | — | — | — | 0/62 | 0.0% · incomplete |
| EliteserienNorway | 45 | 19 | 0 | 64 | — | — | — | 0/58 | 0.0% · incomplete |
| Primeira LigaPortugal | 51 | 13 | 0 | 64 | 80.0% | 65.5% | +14.5 pp | 5/54 | 9.3% · incomplete |
 Premier LeagueEngland | 40 | 21 | 0 | 61 | 28.6% | 70.3% | -41.7 pp | 7/50 | 14.0% · incomplete |
 Serie AItaly | 46 | 13 | 0 | 59 | 77.8% | 66.3% | +11.5 pp | 9/46 | 19.6% · incomplete |
| J1 LeagueJapan | 47 | 10 | 0 | 57 | — | — | — | 0/57 | 0.0% · incomplete |
| Liga IRomania | 38 | 18 | 0 | 56 | — | — | — | 0/52 | 0.0% · incomplete |
| K League 1South-Korea | 35 | 12 | 0 | 47 | — | — | — | 0/43 | 0.0% · incomplete |
 Ligue 1France | 31 | 16 | 0 | 47 | 75.0% | 74.6% | +0.4 pp | 8/37 | 21.6% · incomplete |
| Liga MXMexico | 28 | 18 | 0 | 46 | — | — | — | 0/46 | 0.0% · incomplete |
| Segunda DivisiónSpain | 34 | 12 | 0 | 46 | — | — | — | 0/42 | 0.0% · incomplete |
| CONMEBOL Libertadores | 37 | 8 | 0 | 45 | — | — | — | 0/42 | 0.0% · incomplete |
| EkstraklasaPoland | 32 | 13 | 0 | 45 | — | — | — | 0/44 | 0.0% · incomplete |
| Czech LigaCzech-Republic | 32 | 12 | 0 | 44 | — | — | — | 0/40 | 0.0% · incomplete |
| Super LigaSerbia | 30 | 14 | 0 | 44 | — | — | — | 0/43 | 0.0% · incomplete |
 BundesligaGermany | 32 | 5 | 0 | 37 | 100.0% | 88.2% | +11.8 pp | 3/13 | 23.1% · incomplete |
| League CupEngland | 21 | 15 | 0 | 36 | 71.4% | 61.7% | +9.8 pp | 7/31 | 22.6% · incomplete |
| Premier LeagueUkraine | 30 | 6 | 0 | 36 | — | — | — | 0/36 | 0.0% · incomplete |
| Ligue 2France | 25 | 3 | 0 | 28 | — | — | — | 0/27 | 0.0% · incomplete |
| SuperligaDenmark | 22 | 6 | 0 | 28 | — | — | — | 0/24 | 0.0% · incomplete |
| Pro LeagueSaudi-Arabia | 20 | 6 | 0 | 26 | — | — | — | 0/26 | 0.0% · incomplete |
| EredivisieNetherlands | 18 | 7 | 0 | 25 | — | — | — | 0/21 | 0.0% · incomplete |
| BundesligaAustria | 16 | 8 | 0 | 24 | — | — | — | 0/22 | 0.0% · incomplete |
| HNLCroatia | 21 | 3 | 0 | 24 | — | — | — | 0/23 | 0.0% · incomplete |
| Super LeagueSwitzerland | 16 | 7 | 0 | 23 | — | — | — | 0/19 | 0.0% · incomplete |
| Taça de PortugalPortugal | 18 | 5 | 0 | 23 | — | — | — | 0/16 | 0.0% · incomplete |
| USL League OneUSA | 17 | 3 | 0 | 20 | — | — | — | 0/20 | 0.0% · incomplete |
| 2. BundesligaGermany | 11 | 8 | 0 | 19 | — | — | — | 0/15 | 0.0% · incomplete |
| Süper LigTurkey | 8 | 9 | 0 | 17 | — | — | — | 0/17 | 0.0% · incomplete |
| CupBelgium | 11 | 4 | 0 | 15 | — | — | — | 0/6 | 0.0% · incomplete |
| OFC Champions League | 13 | 2 | 0 | 15 | — | — | — | 0/14 | 0.0% · incomplete |
| PremiershipScotland | 9 | 6 | 0 | 15 | — | — | — | 0/14 | 0.0% · incomplete |
| Serie BItaly | 11 | 4 | 0 | 15 | — | — | — | 0/15 | 0.0% · incomplete |
| Copa del ReySpain | 11 | 2 | 0 | 13 | — | — | — | 0/6 | 0.0% · incomplete |
| Super League 1Greece | 5 | 4 | 0 | 9 | — | — | — | 0/8 | 0.0% · incomplete |
| Copa Do BrasilBrazil | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | — | — | — | 0/7 | 0.0% · incomplete |
| Coppa ItaliaItaly | 4 | 4 | 0 | 8 | — | — | — | 0/4 | 0.0% · incomplete |
| Leagues Cup | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | — | — | — | 0/5 | 0.0% · incomplete |
| Premier League - Summer SeriesEngland | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | — | — | — | 0/6 | 0.0% · incomplete |
| AFC Champions League Elite | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | — | — | — | 0/3 | 0.0% · incomplete |
 Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | — | — | — | 0/3 | 0.0% · incomplete |
| AFC Champions League Two | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | — | — | — | 0/2 | 0.0% · incomplete |
| US Open CupUSA | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | — | — | — | 0/2 | 0.0% · incomplete |
| A-LeagueAustralia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — | — | — | 0/1 | 0.0% · incomplete |
| CAF Champions League | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — | — | — | 0/1 | 0.0% · incomplete |
| CONCACAF Champions League | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | — | — | — | 0/1 | 0.0% · incomplete |
| MLS All-StarUSA | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — | — | — | 0/0 | — |
Performance by confidence
| Group | Landed | Missed | Void | Settled sample | Actual hit rate | Market baseline | Difference | Covered / eligible | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moderate confidence | 788 | 329 | 0 | 1117 | 78.6% | 70.9% | +7.7 pp | 28/905 | 3.1% · incomplete |
| High confidence (evidence limited) | 422 | 123 | 0 | 545 | — | — | — | 0/526 | 0.0% · incomplete |
| High confidence | 417 | 112 | 0 | 529 | 73.0% | 66.7% | +6.2 pp | 37/474 | 7.8% · incomplete |
| Moderate confidence (evidence limited) | 290 | 125 | 0 | 415 | — | — | — | 0/382 | 0.0% · incomplete |
| Low confidence (evidence limited) | 118 | 46 | 0 | 164 | 50.0% | 62.6% | -12.6 pp | 14/64 | 21.9% · incomplete |
| High confidence (evidence limited) | 2 | 3 | 0 | 5 | — | — | — | 0/5 | 0.0% · incomplete |
| Low confidence (evidence limited) | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — | — | — | 0/0 | — |
Recent settled Main Tips
The latest canonical Main Tips with a decided or void outcome. The complete published history is available in the Prediction Dataset.
| Date | Match | Competition | Tip | Confidence evidence | Score | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-02 | FC Cincinnati vs San Jose Earthquakes | Major League Soccer | BTTS - Yes | 78.4% | 4-2 | Landed |
| 2026-10-07 | Chicago Fire vs Vancouver Whitecaps | Major League Soccer | Over 1.5 goals | 70.7% | 3-1 | Landed |
| 2026-10-06 | Scarborough Athletic vs Macclesfield | FA Cup | X2 (Away or Draw) | Low confidence | 1-2 | Landed |
| 2026-10-06 | Angola vs Malawi | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification | 1X (Home or Draw) | 79.0% | 3-1 | Landed |
| 2026-10-06 | Wingate & Finchley vs Bedford Town | FA Cup | Over 1.5 goals | 70.7% | 1-3 | Landed |
| 2026-10-06 | Spalding United vs Bury Town | FA Cup | Over 1.5 goals | 70.7% | 4-0 | Landed |
| 2026-10-06 | Halesowen Town vs Stafford Rangers | FA Cup | Halesowen Town to win | 70.7% | 1-2 | Missed |
| 2026-10-06 | Atherton Collieries vs Trafford | FA Cup | Over 1.5 goals | 79.0% | 3-0 | Landed |
| 2026-10-06 | Switzerland vs FYR Macedonia | UEFA Nations League | Switzerland to win | 70.9% | 3-0 | Landed |
| 2026-10-06 | Luxembourg vs Bulgaria | UEFA Nations League | 12 (No Draw) | 70.6% | 0-2 | Landed |
| 2026-10-06 | Moldova vs Slovakia | UEFA Nations League | Over 1.5 goals | 70.9% | 0-4 | Landed |
| 2026-10-06 | Belarus vs Finland | UEFA Nations League | 1X (Home or Draw) | Low confidence | 1-0 | Landed |
| 2026-10-06 | Albania vs San Marino | UEFA Nations League | Albania to win | 70.9% | 2-1 | Landed |
| 2026-10-06 | Croatia vs Spain | UEFA Nations League | Spain to win | 79.0% | 1-2 | Landed |
| 2026-10-06 | Scotland vs Slovenia | UEFA Nations League | 1X (Home or Draw) | 79.0% | 1-2 | Missed |
| 2026-10-06 | England vs Czechia | UEFA Nations League | Over 1.5 goals | 79.0% | 3-0 | Landed |
| 2026-10-06 | Estonia vs Iceland | UEFA Nations League | 1X (Home or Draw) | 70.9% | 0-0 | Landed |
| 2026-10-06 | Kazakhstan vs Faroe Islands | UEFA Nations League | BTTS - Yes | 70.9% | 2-2 | Landed |
| 2026-10-05 | Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Poland | UEFA Nations League | 12 (No Draw) | 79.0% | 1-0 | Landed |
| 2026-10-05 | Northern Ireland vs Georgia | UEFA Nations League | Under 2.5 goals | 70.8% | 0-0 | Landed |
| 2026-10-05 | Montenegro vs Armenia | UEFA Nations League | Montenegro to win | 70.8% | 0-0 | Missed |
| 2026-10-05 | Romania vs Sweden | UEFA Nations League | Over 1.5 goals | 70.8% | 0-1 | Missed |
| 2026-10-05 | Ukraine vs Hungary | UEFA Nations League | Under 2.5 goals | Low confidence | 1-2 | Missed |
| 2026-10-05 | Italy vs Türkiye | UEFA Nations League | 1X (Home or Draw) | 79.0% | 3-1 | Landed |
| 2026-10-05 | France vs Belgium | UEFA Nations League | X2 (Away or Draw) | Low confidence | 4-1 | Missed |
| 2026-10-05 | Cyprus vs Latvia | UEFA Nations League | Under 2.5 goals | Low confidence | 2-1 | Missed |
| 2026-10-04 | Rep. Of Ireland vs Israel | UEFA Nations League | 1X (Home or Draw) | Low confidence | 1-1 | Landed |
| 2026-10-04 | Wales vs Denmark | UEFA Nations League | 1X (Home or Draw) | Low confidence | 0-1 | Missed |
| 2026-10-04 | Netherlands vs Serbia | UEFA Nations League | Over 1.5 goals | 71.2% | 2-1 | Landed |
| 2026-10-04 | Greece vs Germany | UEFA Nations League | X2 (Away or Draw) | 79.0% | 0-0 | Landed |
| 2026-10-04 | Portugal vs Norway | UEFA Nations League | Over 1.5 goals | Low confidence | 2-1 | Landed |
| 2026-10-04 | Tavernes vs Maracena | Copa del Rey | Under 2.5 goals | 70.9% | 0-0 | Landed |
| 2026-10-04 | Atlético Melilla vs Pinatar | Copa del Rey | X2 (Away or Draw) | 79.0% | 0-3 | Landed |
| 2026-10-04 | Alcazar vs Talayuela | Copa del Rey | 1X (Home or Draw) | 79.0% | 1-0 | Landed |
| 2026-10-04 | Malta vs Andorra | UEFA Nations League | 1X (Home or Draw) | 71.2% | 1-0 | Landed |
| 2026-10-04 | Kosovo vs Austria | UEFA Nations League | 1X (Home or Draw) | 71.2% | 1-1 | Landed |
| 2026-10-04 | CD San Jose vs Auriense | Copa del Rey | X2 (Away or Draw) | 79.0% | 1-0 | Missed |
| 2026-10-04 | Noja vs Ribadesella CF | Copa del Rey | X2 (Away or Draw) | 79.0% | 1-1 | Landed |
| 2026-10-04 | Azerbaijan vs Lithuania | UEFA Nations League | Under 2.5 goals | Low confidence | 1-0 | Landed |
| 2026-10-03 | FYR Macedonia vs Scotland | UEFA Nations League | X2 (Away or Draw) | 71.1% | 0-2 | Landed |
| 2026-10-03 | Switzerland vs Slovenia | UEFA Nations League | 1X (Home or Draw) | 71.1% | 2-1 | Landed |
| 2026-10-03 | Spain vs Czechia | UEFA Nations League | Spain to win | 71.1% | 3-1 | Landed |
| 2026-10-04 | Atletico-MG vs RB Bragantino | Serie A | 1X (Home or Draw) | High confidence | 1-0 | Landed |
| 2026-10-03 | Tedeón vs Anaitasuna | Copa del Rey | Over 1.5 goals | 71.1% | 2-5 | Landed |
| 2026-10-03 | Ceuta 6 de Junio vs Lebrijana | Copa del Rey | Over 1.5 goals | 71.1% | 1-2 | Landed |
| 2026-10-03 | Estonia vs Luxembourg | UEFA Nations League | Under 2.5 goals | Low confidence | 1-0 | Landed |
| 2026-10-03 | Iceland vs Bulgaria | UEFA Nations League | X2 (Away or Draw) | Low confidence | 3-0 | Missed |
| 2026-10-03 | Belarus vs San Marino | UEFA Nations League | Belarus to win | Low confidence | 4-0 | Landed |
| 2026-10-03 | Croatia vs England | UEFA Nations League | Over 1.5 goals | 71.1% | 0-7 | Landed |
| 2026-10-03 | Thame United vs Eastbourne Borough | FA Cup | Over 1.5 goals | 71.1% | 0-1 | Missed |
The headline hit rate is landed divided by landed plus missed across all settled Main Tips in the selected window; void tips never enter that denominator. The BetLogic and market-implied rates in the market comparison are calculated from exactly the same covered Home Win, Away Win, 1X, X2 and 12 selections. Market coverage is covered eligible selections divided by all settled eligible selections. The bookmaker Brier score is mean((market probability − outcome)²), where lower is better. Predictions are informational and do not guarantee future results.