Prediction Transparency
BetLogic Prediction Performance
A transparent record of BetLogic Main Tips from completed matches, compared on the same covered selections with the decision-time bookmaker market baseline. Void and unresolved tips never inflate a hit-rate denominator.
Tracking since 18 May 2026 · Updated through 10 November 2026
Performance windows
7 days
Overall Main Tip hit rate 76.1%
140/184 landed · Overall Main Tip hit rate
Market evidence and limitations
Market-covered cohort: BetLogic 79.3% vs Market 74.6% · +4.7 pp
31.5% market coverage · 58/184 eligible 1X2 tips
Incomplete market sample: this comparison covers 60% or less of eligible 1X2 Main Tips.
Bookmaker Brier 0.1513 (lower is better)
BetLogic Brier unavailable — no canonical decision-time BetLogic probability is stored (P1.2).
ROI unavailable — decision-time decimal odds were not stored for this sample.
30 days
Overall Main Tip hit rate 72.4%
270/373 landed · Overall Main Tip hit rate
Market evidence and limitations
Market-covered cohort: BetLogic 75.0% vs Market 75.1% · -0.1 pp
32.2% market coverage · 120/373 eligible 1X2 tips
Incomplete market sample: this comparison covers 60% or less of eligible 1X2 Main Tips.
Bookmaker Brier 0.1734 (lower is better)
BetLogic Brier unavailable — no canonical decision-time BetLogic probability is stored (P1.2).
ROI unavailable — decision-time decimal odds were not stored for this sample.
90 days
Overall Main Tip hit rate 72.4%
270/373 landed · Overall Main Tip hit rate
Market evidence and limitations
Market-covered cohort: BetLogic 75.0% vs Market 75.1% · -0.1 pp
32.2% market coverage · 120/373 eligible 1X2 tips
Incomplete market sample: this comparison covers 60% or less of eligible 1X2 Main Tips.
Bookmaker Brier 0.1734 (lower is better)
BetLogic Brier unavailable — no canonical decision-time BetLogic probability is stored (P1.2).
ROI unavailable — decision-time decimal odds were not stored for this sample.
All time
Overall Main Tip hit rate 72.4%
270/373 landed · Overall Main Tip hit rate
Market evidence and limitations
Market-covered cohort: BetLogic 75.0% vs Market 75.1% · -0.1 pp
32.2% market coverage · 120/373 eligible 1X2 tips
Incomplete market sample: this comparison covers 60% or less of eligible 1X2 Main Tips.
Bookmaker Brier 0.1734 (lower is better)
BetLogic Brier unavailable — no canonical decision-time BetLogic probability is stored (P1.2).
ROI unavailable — decision-time decimal odds were not stored for this sample.
All-time breakdowns
Breakdowns use the same canonical Main Tip record and the same covered-row rule as the headline comparison. Market coverage uses only supported 1X2 selections; goals and other propositions are excluded rather than treated as missing market prices.
Performance by market
| Group | Evidence | Landed | Missed | Void | Settled sample | Actual hit rate | Market baseline | Difference | Covered / eligible | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double Chance | Strong evidence | 270 | 103 | 0 | 373 | 75.0% | 75.1% | -0.1 pp | 120/373 | 32.2% · incomplete |
Performance by competition
| Group | Landed | Missed | Void | Settled sample | Actual hit rate | Market baseline | Difference | Covered / eligible | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Major League SoccerUSA | 35 | 9 | 0 | 44 | 73.7% | 75.6% | -1.9 pp | 19/44 | 43.2% · incomplete |
| FA CupEngland | 26 | 14 | 0 | 40 | — | — | — | 0/40 | 0.0% · incomplete |
| Copa del ReySpain | 17 | 22 | 0 | 39 | — | — | — | 0/39 | 0.0% · incomplete |
 Serie AItaly | 22 | 8 | 0 | 30 | 68.8% | 77.4% | -8.6 pp | 16/30 | 53.3% · incomplete |
 La LigaSpain | 19 | 1 | 0 | 20 | 100.0% | 76.1% | +23.9 pp | 8/20 | 40.0% · incomplete |
 Premier LeagueEngland | 17 | 3 | 0 | 20 | 71.4% | 79.2% | -7.8 pp | 7/20 | 35.0% · incomplete |
 Serie ABrazil | 17 | 3 | 0 | 20 | 100.0% | 72.5% | +27.5 pp | 7/20 | 35.0% · incomplete |
 Jupiler Pro LeagueBelgium | 15 | 4 | 0 | 19 | 71.4% | 77.9% | -6.4 pp | 7/19 | 36.8% · incomplete |
 BundesligaGermany | 12 | 6 | 0 | 18 | 66.7% | 77.7% | -11.0 pp | 6/18 | 33.3% · incomplete |
 Ligue 1France | 14 | 4 | 0 | 18 | 71.4% | 71.2% | +0.2 pp | 7/18 | 38.9% · incomplete |
 UEFA Champions League | 13 | 5 | 0 | 18 | 71.4% | 72.1% | -0.7 pp | 7/18 | 38.9% · incomplete |
 UEFA Europa Conference League | 14 | 4 | 0 | 18 | 87.5% | 77.3% | +10.2 pp | 8/18 | 44.4% · incomplete |
 UEFA Europa League | 13 | 5 | 0 | 18 | 72.7% | 73.1% | -0.3 pp | 11/18 | 61.1% |
| Primeira LigaPortugal | 12 | 5 | 0 | 17 | 66.7% | 64.1% | +2.5 pp | 6/17 | 35.3% · incomplete |
| DFB PokalGermany | 11 | 4 | 0 | 15 | 80.0% | 85.1% | -5.1 pp | 5/15 | 33.3% · incomplete |
| League CupEngland | 3 | 5 | 0 | 8 | 50.0% | 72.2% | -22.2 pp | 4/8 | 50.0% · incomplete |
| Copa Do BrasilBrazil | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 50.0% | 67.2% | -17.2 pp | 2/4 | 50.0% · incomplete |
| Taça da LigaPortugal | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | — | — | — | 0/4 | 0.0% · incomplete |
| Coupe de FranceFrance | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | — | — | — | 0/3 | 0.0% · incomplete |
Performance by confidence
| Group | Landed | Missed | Void | Settled sample | Actual hit rate | Market baseline | Difference | Covered / eligible | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low confidence (evidence limited) | 218 | 65 | 0 | 283 | 77.8% | 74.5% | +3.2 pp | 90/283 | 31.8% · incomplete |
| Low confidence (evidence limited) | 52 | 38 | 0 | 90 | 66.7% | 76.9% | -10.2 pp | 30/90 | 33.3% · incomplete |
Performance by Main Tip tier
The fallback tier requires exact recorded selection provenance. Historical below-standard picks without that proof are separate. All tiers use the same official settled record and never alter the overall hit rate.
| Group | Landed | Missed | Void | Settled sample | Actual hit rate | Market baseline | Difference | Covered / eligible | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Below-standard (origin unverified) | 270 | 103 | 0 | 373 | 75.0% | 75.1% | -0.1 pp | 120/373 | 32.2% · incomplete |
Recent settled Main Tips
The latest canonical Main Tips with a decided or void outcome. The complete published history is available in the Prediction Dataset.
| Date | Match | Competition | Tip | Confidence evidence | Score | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-10 | Trival Valderas vs Leganes | Copa del Rey | Home or DrawBelow-standard (origin unverified) | Unavailable | 0-1 | Missed |
| 2026-11-10 | Mijas Las Lagunas vs Real Jaén | Copa del Rey | Home or DrawBelow-standard (origin unverified) | Unavailable | 1-2 | Missed |
| 2026-11-10 | Amorebieta vs UD Logroñés | Copa del Rey | Away or DrawBelow-standard (origin unverified) | Unavailable | 1-0 | Missed |
| 2026-11-10 | Pamplona vs Eibar | Copa del Rey | Away or DrawBelow-standard (origin unverified) | Unavailable | 0-3 | Landed |
| 2026-11-10 | Anaitasuna vs Alaves | Copa del Rey | Home or DrawBelow-standard (origin unverified) | Unavailable | 1-6 | Missed |
| 2026-11-09 | Plymouth Parkway vs Berkhamsted | FA Cup | Home or AwayBelow-standard (origin unverified) | Low confidence | 2-1 | Landed |
| 2026-11-08 | Rio Ave vs SC Braga | Primeira Liga | Away or DrawBelow-standard (origin unverified) | Low confidence | 0-1 | Landed |
| 2026-11-08 | Estrela vs Benfica | Primeira Liga | Away or DrawBelow-standard (origin unverified) | Low confidence | 2-3 | Landed |
| 2026-11-08 | Vasco DA Gama vs Palmeiras | Copa Do Brasil | Away or DrawBelow-standard (origin unverified) | Low confidence | 2-1 | Missed |
| 2026-11-08 | Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona | La Liga | Home or AwayBelow-standard (origin unverified) | Low confidence | 1-2 | Landed |
| 2026-11-08 | Lens vs Marseille | Ligue 1 | Away or DrawBelow-standard (origin unverified) | Low confidence | 1-2 | Landed |
| 2026-11-08 | Fiorentina vs Juventus | Serie A | Away or DrawBelow-standard (origin unverified) | Low confidence | 2-2 | Landed |
| 2026-11-08 | 1899 Hoffenheim vs FC Schalke 04 | Bundesliga | Home or DrawBelow-standard (origin unverified) | Low confidence | 2-1 | Landed |
| 2026-11-08 | St. Truiden vs Zulte Waregem | Jupiler Pro League | Home or DrawBelow-standard (origin unverified) | Low confidence | 4-1 | Landed |
| 2026-11-08 | Vitória SC vs FC Porto | Primeira Liga | Home or DrawBelow-standard (origin unverified) | Low confidence | 1-2 | Missed |
| 2026-11-08 | Oldham vs Sheffield Wednesday | FA Cup | Home or DrawBelow-standard (origin unverified) | Low confidence | 2-1 | Landed |
| 2026-11-08 | Villarreal vs Getafe | La Liga | Home or DrawBelow-standard (origin unverified) | Low confidence | 2-0 | Landed |
| 2026-11-08 | Celta Vigo vs Levante | La Liga | Home or DrawBelow-standard (origin unverified) | Low confidence | 0-0 | Landed |
| 2026-11-08 | Union St. Gilloise vs Genk | Jupiler Pro League | Home or DrawBelow-standard (origin unverified) | Low confidence | 1-0 | Landed |
| 2026-11-08 | Inter vs Como | Serie A | Home or AwayBelow-standard (origin unverified) | Low confidence | 2-0 | Landed |
| 2026-11-08 | Manchester United vs Aston Villa | Premier League | Home or AwayBelow-standard (origin unverified) | Low confidence | 4-4 | Missed |
| 2026-11-08 | SC Freiburg vs Union Berlin | Bundesliga | Home or DrawBelow-standard (origin unverified) | Low confidence | 2-0 | Landed |
| 2026-11-08 | Le Mans vs Monaco | Ligue 1 | Home or AwayBelow-standard (origin unverified) | Low confidence | 1-1 | Missed |
| 2026-11-08 | Le Havre vs Lorient | Ligue 1 | Home or AwayBelow-standard (origin unverified) | Low confidence | 0-2 | Landed |
| 2026-11-08 | Stade Brestois 29 vs Lyon | Ligue 1 | Home or DrawBelow-standard (origin unverified) | Low confidence | 2-0 | Landed |
| 2026-11-08 | Angers vs Nice | Ligue 1 | Home or AwayBelow-standard (origin unverified) | Low confidence | 0-2 | Landed |
| 2026-11-08 | Santa Clara vs GIL Vicente | Primeira Liga | Home or DrawBelow-standard (origin unverified) | Low confidence | 1-2 | Missed |
| 2026-11-08 | Nacional vs Academico Viseu | Primeira Liga | Away or DrawBelow-standard (origin unverified) | Low confidence | 1-0 | Missed |
| 2026-11-08 | Real Sociedad vs Rayo Vallecano | La Liga | Home or DrawBelow-standard (origin unverified) | Low confidence | 1-0 | Landed |
| 2026-11-08 | Cray Wanderers vs Stockport County | FA Cup | Away or DrawBelow-standard (origin unverified) | Low confidence | 2-3 | Landed |
| 2026-11-08 | Wimborne Town vs Crawley Town | FA Cup | Home or DrawBelow-standard (origin unverified) | Low confidence | 2-0 | Landed |
| 2026-11-08 | Gent vs Kortrijk | Jupiler Pro League | Home or DrawBelow-standard (origin unverified) | Low confidence | 1-0 | Landed |
| 2026-11-08 | 1. FC Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen | Bundesliga | Home or AwayBelow-standard (origin unverified) | Low confidence | 1-2 | Landed |
| 2026-11-08 | Sunderland vs Chelsea | Premier League | Home or AwayBelow-standard (origin unverified) | Low confidence | 1-0 | Landed |
| 2026-11-08 | Ipswich vs Bournemouth | Premier League | Home or AwayBelow-standard (origin unverified) | Low confidence | 1-2 | Landed |
| 2026-11-08 | Crystal Palace vs Liverpool | Premier League | Away or DrawBelow-standard (origin unverified) | Low confidence | 1-3 | Landed |
| 2026-11-08 | Brighton vs Brentford | Premier League | Home or DrawBelow-standard (origin unverified) | Low confidence | 2-0 | Landed |
| 2026-11-08 | Rennes vs Lille | Ligue 1 | Home or DrawBelow-standard (origin unverified) | Low confidence | 1-2 | Missed |
| 2026-11-08 | Monza vs Atalanta | Serie A | Home or AwayBelow-standard (origin unverified) | Low confidence | 0-1 | Landed |
| 2026-11-08 | Genoa vs AC Milan | Serie A | Home or AwayBelow-standard (origin unverified) | Low confidence | 1-2 | Landed |
| 2026-11-08 | Stafford Rangers vs Grimsby | FA Cup | Home or DrawBelow-standard (origin unverified) | Low confidence | 3-3 | Landed |
| 2026-11-08 | Elche vs Real Betis | La Liga | Away or DrawBelow-standard (origin unverified) | Low confidence | 0-2 | Landed |
| 2026-11-08 | Club Brugge KV vs Anderlecht | Jupiler Pro League | Home or DrawBelow-standard (origin unverified) | Low confidence | 1-1 | Landed |
| 2026-11-08 | Napoli vs Lazio | Serie A | Away or DrawBelow-standard (origin unverified) | Low confidence | 1-1 | Landed |
| 2026-11-08 | Houston Dynamo vs St. Louis City | Major League Soccer | Home or AwayBelow-standard (origin unverified) | Low confidence | 0-1 | Landed |
| 2026-11-08 | Minnesota United FC vs San Jose Earthquakes | Major League Soccer | Home or AwayBelow-standard (origin unverified) | Low confidence | 3-1 | Landed |
| 2026-11-08 | San Diego vs Sporting Kansas City | Major League Soccer | Home or AwayBelow-standard (origin unverified) | Low confidence | 0-1 | Landed |
| 2026-11-08 | Austin vs Portland Timbers | Major League Soccer | Home or AwayBelow-standard (origin unverified) | Low confidence | 0-2 | Landed |
| 2026-11-08 | FC Dallas vs Colorado Rapids | Major League Soccer | Home or DrawBelow-standard (origin unverified) | Low confidence | 3-1 | Landed |
| 2026-11-08 | Real Salt Lake vs Los Angeles Galaxy | Major League Soccer | Home or DrawBelow-standard (origin unverified) | Low confidence | 2-1 | Landed |
The headline hit rate is landed divided by landed plus missed across all settled Main Tips in the selected window; void tips never enter that denominator. The BetLogic and market-implied rates in the market comparison are calculated from exactly the same covered Home Win, Away Win, 1X, X2 and 12 selections. Market coverage is covered eligible selections divided by all settled eligible selections. The bookmaker Brier score is mean((market probability − outcome)²), where lower is better. Predictions are informational and do not guarantee future results.