First-Party Research
BetLogic Prediction Research
A living report derived from BetLogic's own settled Main Tip record. It describes how predictions performed by market and competition, how well stated confidence matched observed results, and which failure categories recur. It is descriptive research, not betting advice.
Research Snapshot
Updated through 25 September 2026
Baseline
18 May 2026
Latest complete month
August 2026
Display threshold
20 settled
Finding threshold
50 settled
Strong threshold
100 settled
Publication thresholds: 20 settled to display a cohort, 50 to state a finding, 100 for strong evidence.
Latest Complete Month — August 2026
Hit rate 73.0%
819 landed · 303 missed
1122 settled · 0 void · 1122 published
Strong evidence
1 August 2026 — 31 August 2026
90-Day Context
Hit rate 72.4%
1542 landed · 587 missed
2129 settled · 0 void · 2129 published
Strong evidence
28 June 2026 — 25 September 2026
All-Time Context
Hit rate 73.5%
1899 landed · 686 missed
2585 settled · 0 void · 2585 published
Strong evidence
18 May 2026 — 25 September 2026
Market Performance
Market cohorts with at least 20 settled predictions. Sample size and evidence tier are shown for every row, and no market is ranked as a better or safer choice than another.
August 2026
| Market | Landed | Missed | Void | Settled sample | Hit rate | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double Chance | 763 | 271 | 0 | 1034 | 73.8% | Strong evidence |
| Goals | 49 | 28 | 0 | 77 | 63.6% | Eligible evidence |
Last 90 days
| Market | Landed | Missed | Void | Settled sample | Hit rate | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double Chance | 1318 | 469 | 0 | 1787 | 73.8% | Strong evidence |
| Goals | 190 | 93 | 0 | 283 | 67.1% | Strong evidence |
| Both Teams to Score | 24 | 20 | 0 | 44 | 54.5% | Building evidence |
All time
| Market | Landed | Missed | Void | Settled sample | Hit rate | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double Chance | 1667 | 564 | 0 | 2231 | 74.7% | Strong evidence |
| Goals | 196 | 96 | 0 | 292 | 67.1% | Strong evidence |
| Both Teams to Score | 26 | 21 | 0 | 47 | 55.3% | Building evidence |
Competition Performance
Competition cohorts with at least 20 settled predictions. Competitions below that sample are not compared, because a handful of results cannot describe a pattern.
August 2026
| Competition | Landed | Missed | Void | Settled sample | Hit rate | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 UEFA Europa Conference LeagueWorld | 72 | 36 | 0 | 108 | 66.7% | Strong evidence |
| Major League SoccerUSA | 53 | 22 | 0 | 75 | 70.7% | Eligible evidence |
| Liga Profesional ArgentinaArgentina | 36 | 24 | 0 | 60 | 60.0% | Eligible evidence |
 UEFA Europa LeagueWorld | 39 | 11 | 0 | 50 | 78.0% | Eligible evidence |
| Serie ABrazil | 28 | 11 | 0 | 39 | 71.8% | Building evidence |
| ChampionshipEngland | 25 | 10 | 0 | 35 | 71.4% | Building evidence |
 UEFA Champions LeagueWorld | 25 | 9 | 0 | 34 | 73.5% | Building evidence |
| Jupiler Pro LeagueBelgium | 29 | 4 | 0 | 33 | 87.9% | Building evidence |
| Primeira LigaPortugal | 30 | 3 | 0 | 33 | 90.9% | Building evidence |
| J1 LeagueJapan | 27 | 3 | 0 | 30 | 90.0% | Building evidence |
 La LigaSpain | 18 | 12 | 0 | 30 | 60.0% | Building evidence |
| AllsvenskanSweden | 19 | 9 | 0 | 28 | 67.9% | Building evidence |
| Czech LigaCzech-Republic | 22 | 5 | 0 | 27 | 81.5% | Building evidence |
| Liga IRomania | 21 | 6 | 0 | 27 | 77.8% | Building evidence |
| Liga MXMexico | 17 | 10 | 0 | 27 | 63.0% | Building evidence |
| Ligue 2France | 23 | 3 | 0 | 26 | 88.5% | Building evidence |
| EkstraklasaPoland | 16 | 9 | 0 | 25 | 64.0% | Building evidence |
| Super LigaSerbia | 17 | 8 | 0 | 25 | 68.0% | Building evidence |
| EredivisieNetherlands | 18 | 6 | 0 | 24 | 75.0% | Building evidence |
| K League 1South-Korea | 16 | 7 | 0 | 23 | 69.6% | Building evidence |
| Premier LeagueUkraine | 19 | 2 | 0 | 21 | 90.5% | Building evidence |
| SuperligaDenmark | 17 | 4 | 0 | 21 | 81.0% | Building evidence |
| BundesligaAustria | 13 | 7 | 0 | 20 | 65.0% | Building evidence |
| EliteserienNorway | 13 | 7 | 0 | 20 | 65.0% | Building evidence |
| League CupEngland | 10 | 10 | 0 | 20 | 50.0% | Building evidence |
 Premier LeagueEngland | 15 | 5 | 0 | 20 | 75.0% | Building evidence |
| Segunda DivisiónSpain | 15 | 5 | 0 | 20 | 75.0% | Building evidence |
 Serie AItaly | 15 | 5 | 0 | 20 | 75.0% | Building evidence |
Last 90 days
| Competition | Landed | Missed | Void | Settled sample | Hit rate | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UEFA Europa Conference LeagueWorld | 168 | 65 | 0 | 233 | 72.1% | Strong evidence |
| Major League SoccerUSA | 122 | 45 | 0 | 167 | 73.1% | Strong evidence |
| Serie ABrazil | 73 | 27 | 0 | 100 | 73.0% | Strong evidence |
| FA CupEngland | 64 | 33 | 0 | 97 | 66.0% | Eligible evidence |
| UEFA Champions LeagueWorld | 64 | 27 | 0 | 91 | 70.3% | Eligible evidence |
| UEFA Europa LeagueWorld | 68 | 22 | 0 | 90 | 75.6% | Eligible evidence |
| Liga Profesional ArgentinaArgentina | 58 | 29 | 0 | 87 | 66.7% | Eligible evidence |
| La LigaSpain | 47 | 22 | 0 | 69 | 68.1% | Eligible evidence |
| ChampionshipEngland | 42 | 23 | 0 | 65 | 64.6% | Eligible evidence |
| Jupiler Pro LeagueBelgium | 52 | 11 | 0 | 63 | 82.5% | Eligible evidence |
| Primeira LigaPortugal | 50 | 12 | 0 | 62 | 80.6% | Eligible evidence |
| AllsvenskanSweden | 36 | 15 | 0 | 51 | 70.6% | Eligible evidence |
| Premier LeagueEngland | 33 | 17 | 0 | 50 | 66.0% | Eligible evidence |
| Serie AItaly | 39 | 11 | 0 | 50 | 78.0% | Eligible evidence |
| K League 1South-Korea | 35 | 12 | 0 | 47 | 74.5% | Building evidence |
| EliteserienNorway | 33 | 13 | 0 | 46 | 71.7% | Building evidence |
 Ligue 1France | 30 | 15 | 0 | 45 | 66.7% | Building evidence |
| Liga IRomania | 28 | 15 | 0 | 43 | 65.1% | Building evidence |
| Liga MXMexico | 26 | 17 | 0 | 43 | 60.5% | Building evidence |
| World CupWorld | 29 | 9 | 0 | 38 | 76.3% | Building evidence |
| Czech LigaCzech-Republic | 29 | 7 | 0 | 36 | 80.6% | Building evidence |
| League CupEngland | 21 | 15 | 0 | 36 | 58.3% | Building evidence |
| Super LigaSerbia | 23 | 13 | 0 | 36 | 63.9% | Building evidence |
 BundesligaGermany | 31 | 4 | 0 | 35 | 88.6% | Building evidence |
| EkstraklasaPoland | 24 | 11 | 0 | 35 | 68.6% | Building evidence |
| J1 LeagueJapan | 27 | 3 | 0 | 30 | 90.0% | Building evidence |
| SuperligaDenmark | 21 | 6 | 0 | 27 | 77.8% | Building evidence |
| Ligue 2France | 23 | 3 | 0 | 26 | 88.5% | Building evidence |
| EredivisieNetherlands | 18 | 6 | 0 | 24 | 75.0% | Building evidence |
| Premier LeagueUkraine | 19 | 3 | 0 | 22 | 86.4% | Building evidence |
| Taça de PortugalPortugal | 18 | 4 | 0 | 22 | 81.8% | Building evidence |
| BundesligaAustria | 14 | 7 | 0 | 21 | 66.7% | Building evidence |
| Super LeagueSwitzerland | 15 | 6 | 0 | 21 | 71.4% | Building evidence |
| Segunda DivisiónSpain | 15 | 5 | 0 | 20 | 75.0% | Building evidence |
| USL League OneUSA | 17 | 3 | 0 | 20 | 85.0% | Building evidence |
All time
| Competition | Landed | Missed | Void | Settled sample | Hit rate | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UEFA Europa Conference LeagueWorld | 168 | 66 | 0 | 234 | 71.8% | Strong evidence |
| Major League SoccerUSA | 135 | 48 | 0 | 183 | 73.8% | Strong evidence |
| Serie ABrazil | 89 | 31 | 0 | 120 | 74.2% | Strong evidence |
| World CupWorld | 87 | 13 | 0 | 100 | 87.0% | Strong evidence |
| FA CupEngland | 64 | 33 | 0 | 97 | 66.0% | Eligible evidence |
| FriendliesWorld | 77 | 19 | 0 | 96 | 80.2% | Eligible evidence |
| UEFA Champions LeagueWorld | 64 | 27 | 0 | 91 | 70.3% | Eligible evidence |
| UEFA Europa LeagueWorld | 69 | 22 | 0 | 91 | 75.8% | Eligible evidence |
| Liga Profesional ArgentinaArgentina | 58 | 30 | 0 | 88 | 65.9% | Eligible evidence |
| La LigaSpain | 55 | 24 | 0 | 79 | 69.6% | Eligible evidence |
| Jupiler Pro LeagueBelgium | 65 | 12 | 0 | 77 | 84.4% | Eligible evidence |
| AllsvenskanSweden | 48 | 21 | 0 | 69 | 69.6% | Eligible evidence |
| ChampionshipEngland | 43 | 23 | 0 | 66 | 65.2% | Eligible evidence |
| EliteserienNorway | 45 | 19 | 0 | 64 | 70.3% | Eligible evidence |
| Primeira LigaPortugal | 51 | 13 | 0 | 64 | 79.7% | Eligible evidence |
| Premier LeagueEngland | 40 | 21 | 0 | 61 | 65.6% | Eligible evidence |
| Serie AItaly | 46 | 13 | 0 | 59 | 78.0% | Eligible evidence |
| J1 LeagueJapan | 47 | 10 | 0 | 57 | 82.5% | Eligible evidence |
| Liga IRomania | 38 | 18 | 0 | 56 | 67.9% | Eligible evidence |
| K League 1South-Korea | 35 | 12 | 0 | 47 | 74.5% | Building evidence |
| Ligue 1France | 31 | 16 | 0 | 47 | 66.0% | Building evidence |
| Liga MXMexico | 28 | 18 | 0 | 46 | 60.9% | Building evidence |
| Segunda DivisiónSpain | 34 | 12 | 0 | 46 | 73.9% | Building evidence |
| CONMEBOL LibertadoresWorld | 37 | 8 | 0 | 45 | 82.2% | Building evidence |
| EkstraklasaPoland | 32 | 13 | 0 | 45 | 71.1% | Building evidence |
| Czech LigaCzech-Republic | 32 | 12 | 0 | 44 | 72.7% | Building evidence |
| Super LigaSerbia | 30 | 14 | 0 | 44 | 68.2% | Building evidence |
| BundesligaGermany | 32 | 5 | 0 | 37 | 86.5% | Building evidence |
| League CupEngland | 21 | 15 | 0 | 36 | 58.3% | Building evidence |
| Premier LeagueUkraine | 30 | 6 | 0 | 36 | 83.3% | Building evidence |
| Ligue 2France | 25 | 3 | 0 | 28 | 89.3% | Building evidence |
| SuperligaDenmark | 22 | 6 | 0 | 28 | 78.6% | Building evidence |
| Pro LeagueSaudi-Arabia | 20 | 6 | 0 | 26 | 76.9% | Building evidence |
| EredivisieNetherlands | 18 | 7 | 0 | 25 | 72.0% | Building evidence |
| BundesligaAustria | 16 | 8 | 0 | 24 | 66.7% | Building evidence |
| HNLCroatia | 21 | 3 | 0 | 24 | 87.5% | Building evidence |
| Super LeagueSwitzerland | 16 | 7 | 0 | 23 | 69.6% | Building evidence |
| Taça de PortugalPortugal | 18 | 4 | 0 | 22 | 81.8% | Building evidence |
| USL League OneUSA | 17 | 3 | 0 | 20 | 85.0% | Building evidence |
Confidence Calibration
Calibration compares how often a confidence cohort actually landed against the average probability BetLogic predicted for it. A negative gap means the cohort was overconfident; a positive gap means it was underconfident.
| Confidence cohort | Settled sample | Landed | Missed | Observed hit rate | Avg predicted probability | Calibration gap | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <60 | 27 | 20 | 7 | 74.1% | 56.5% | +17.6 pts | Underconfident |
| 60-65 | 79 | 54 | 25 | 68.4% | 62.4% | +5.9 pts | Underconfident |
| 65-70 | 116 | 83 | 33 | 71.6% | 67.1% | +4.4 pts | Underconfident |
| 70-75 | 357 | 241 | 116 | 67.5% | 71.8% | -4.3 pts | Overconfident |
| 75-80 | 285 | 209 | 76 | 73.3% | 77.0% | -3.6 pts | Overconfident |
| 80-85 | 443 | 334 | 109 | 75.4% | 82.1% | -6.7 pts | Overconfident |
| 85-90 | 271 | 193 | 78 | 71.2% | 86.8% | -15.6 pts | Overconfident |
| 90+ | 264 | 222 | 42 | 84.1% | 93.4% | -9.3 pts | Overconfident |
Failure Patterns
Missed Main Tips are classified into a fixed, deterministic set of failure categories. Only aggregate counts of losses are published — no individual match, fixture or underlying evidence is exposed, and a win is never counted here even when it was, in hindsight, under-confident.
338 classified missed Main Tips from 1236 settled predictions examined, 28 June 2026 — 25 September 2026.
| Category | Count | Share of classified | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Result went the other way | 294 | 87.0% | Strong evidence |
| Confidence overestimated | 32 | 9.5% | Building evidence |
What the Evidence Supports
Each statement below is generated from the tables above and is only produced when its own cohort reached at least 50 settled predictions.
- BetLogic Main Tips recorded 73.0% landed outcomes across 1122 settled predictions in August 2026 (819 landed, 303 missed, 0 void).
- BetLogic Main Tips recorded 72.4% landed outcomes across 2129 settled predictions over the last 90 days (1542 landed, 587 missed, 0 void).
- BetLogic Main Tips recorded 73.5% landed outcomes across 2585 settled predictions across the published record to date (1899 landed, 686 missed, 0 void).
- Double Chance markets recorded 73.8% landed outcomes across 1034 settled Main Tips in August 2026.
- Goals markets recorded 63.6% landed outcomes across 77 settled Main Tips in August 2026.
- Double Chance markets recorded 73.8% landed outcomes across 1787 settled Main Tips over the last 90 days.
- Goals markets recorded 67.1% landed outcomes across 283 settled Main Tips over the last 90 days.
- Double Chance markets recorded 74.7% landed outcomes across 2231 settled Main Tips across the published record to date.
- Goals markets recorded 67.1% landed outcomes across 292 settled Main Tips across the published record to date.
- UEFA Europa Conference League Main Tips recorded 66.7% landed outcomes across 108 settled predictions in August 2026.
- Major League Soccer Main Tips recorded 70.7% landed outcomes across 75 settled predictions in August 2026.
- Liga Profesional Argentina Main Tips recorded 60.0% landed outcomes across 60 settled predictions in August 2026.
- UEFA Europa Conference League Main Tips recorded 72.1% landed outcomes across 233 settled predictions over the last 90 days.
- Major League Soccer Main Tips recorded 73.1% landed outcomes across 167 settled predictions over the last 90 days.
- Serie A Main Tips recorded 73.0% landed outcomes across 100 settled predictions over the last 90 days.
- UEFA Europa Conference League Main Tips recorded 71.8% landed outcomes across 234 settled predictions across the published record to date.
- Major League Soccer Main Tips recorded 73.8% landed outcomes across 183 settled predictions across the published record to date.
- Serie A Main Tips recorded 74.2% landed outcomes across 120 settled predictions across the published record to date.
- The 80-85 confidence cohort was overconfident across 443 settled samples: observed hit rate was 75.4% against an average predicted probability of 82.1%.
- The 70-75 confidence cohort was overconfident across 357 settled samples: observed hit rate was 67.5% against an average predicted probability of 71.8%.
- The 75-80 confidence cohort was overconfident across 285 settled samples: observed hit rate was 73.3% against an average predicted probability of 77.0%.
- "Result went the other way" was the most frequently classified error category in this research window, appearing 294 times across 338 classified samples.
Limitations
- Sample thresholds (20 / 50 / 100 settled) control publication eligibility only. They are conservative product gates and do not claim formal statistical significance.
- This research is descriptive. It reports what settled results show and does not establish cause or skill.
- No return on investment, profit, staking, units, odds or expected-value figure is published, because BetLogic does not hold a verified historical record of the prices a reader could have taken.
- Void, unresolved and unsupported predictions never enter the hit-rate denominator.
- Historical performance does not guarantee future results.
Methodology
Research evidence can inform future BetLogic methodology changes, but this report does not claim a public methodology change unless that change is separately documented in the public Prediction Methodology. Internal prediction rules, configuration and reasoning traces are not published.
Underlying Data
Performance, market and competition figures on this page are derived from BetLogic's published settled Main Tip record. The Prediction Dataset contains the machine-readable settled predictions, and Prediction Performance shows the same canonical record as headline windows and breakdowns.
Calibration and failure-pattern research uses deterministic internal learning evidence from settled predictions. Only aggregate, public-safe results are published; internal rules, traces and per-match evidence remain private.