First-Party Research
BetLogic Prediction Research
A living report derived from BetLogic's own settled Main Tip record. It describes performance by market and competition, the separate public calibrated-confidence mapping, and recurring failure categories. It is descriptive research, not betting advice.
Research Snapshot
Updated through 7 October 2026
Baseline
18 May 2026
Latest complete month
September 2026
Display threshold
20 settled
Finding threshold
50 settled
Strong threshold
100 settled
Publication thresholds: 20 settled to display a cohort, 50 to state a finding, 100 for strong evidence.
Latest Complete Month — September 2026
Actual covered hit rate 70.9%
Actual hit rate · 79 covered
Market baseline 67.5% · +3.4 pts
21.2% coverage · 79/373 eligible 1X2 tips
Incomplete market sample: coverage is 60% or less.
Bookmaker Brier 0.1777 (lower is better)
BetLogic Brier unavailable — no canonical decision-time BetLogic probability is stored (P1.2).
ROI unavailable — decision-time decimal odds were not stored for this sample.
Strong evidence
1 September 2026 — 30 September 2026
90-Day Context
Actual covered hit rate 70.9%
Actual hit rate · 79 covered
Market baseline 67.5% · +3.4 pts
4.2% coverage · 79/1881 eligible 1X2 tips
Incomplete market sample: coverage is 60% or less.
Bookmaker Brier 0.1777 (lower is better)
BetLogic Brier unavailable — no canonical decision-time BetLogic probability is stored (P1.2).
ROI unavailable — decision-time decimal odds were not stored for this sample.
Strong evidence
10 July 2026 — 7 October 2026
All-Time Context
Actual covered hit rate 70.9%
Actual hit rate · 79 covered
Market baseline 67.5% · +3.4 pts
3.4% coverage · 79/2356 eligible 1X2 tips
Incomplete market sample: coverage is 60% or less.
Bookmaker Brier 0.1777 (lower is better)
BetLogic Brier unavailable — no canonical decision-time BetLogic probability is stored (P1.2).
ROI unavailable — decision-time decimal odds were not stored for this sample.
Strong evidence
18 May 2026 — 7 October 2026
Market Performance
Market cohorts with at least 20 settled predictions. Sample size and evidence tier are shown for every row, and no market is ranked as a better or safer choice than another.
September 2026
| Market | Landed | Missed | Void | Settled sample | Actual hit rate | Market baseline | Difference | Covered / eligible | Coverage | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double Chance | 259 | 96 | 0 | 355 | 70.1% | 70.2% | -0.0 pts | 67/355 | 18.9% · incomplete | Strong evidence |
| Goals | 146 | 66 | 0 | 212 | — | — | — | 0/0 | — | Strong evidence |
| Both Teams to Score | 11 | 12 | 0 | 23 | — | — | — | 0/0 | — | Building evidence |
Last 90 days
| Market | Landed | Missed | Void | Settled sample | Actual hit rate | Market baseline | Difference | Covered / eligible | Coverage | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double Chance | 1356 | 491 | 0 | 1847 | 70.1% | 70.2% | -0.0 pts | 67/1847 | 3.6% · incomplete | Strong evidence |
| Goals | 253 | 106 | 0 | 359 | — | — | — | 0/0 | — | Strong evidence |
| Both Teams to Score | 26 | 20 | 0 | 46 | — | — | — | 0/0 | — | Building evidence |
| Match Result | 21 | 13 | 0 | 34 | 75.0% | 52.3% | +22.7 pts | 12/34 | 35.3% · incomplete | Building evidence |
All time
| Market | Landed | Missed | Void | Settled sample | Actual hit rate | Market baseline | Difference | Covered / eligible | Coverage | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double Chance | 1729 | 593 | 0 | 2322 | 70.1% | 70.2% | -0.0 pts | 67/2322 | 2.9% · incomplete | Strong evidence |
| Goals | 260 | 110 | 0 | 370 | — | — | — | 0/0 | — | Strong evidence |
| Both Teams to Score | 28 | 22 | 0 | 50 | — | — | — | 0/0 | — | Eligible evidence |
| Match Result | 21 | 13 | 0 | 34 | 75.0% | 52.3% | +22.7 pts | 12/34 | 35.3% · incomplete | Building evidence |
Competition Performance
Competition cohorts with at least 20 settled predictions. Competitions below that sample are not compared, because a handful of results cannot describe a pattern.
September 2026
| Competition | Landed | Missed | Void | Settled sample | Actual hit rate | Market baseline | Difference | Covered / eligible | Coverage | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FA CupEngland | 64 | 33 | 0 | 97 | 0.0% | 50.3% | -50.3 pts | 2/41 | 4.9% · incomplete | Eligible evidence |
| Major League SoccerUSA | 56 | 17 | 0 | 73 | 85.7% | 65.2% | +20.5 pts | 7/37 | 18.9% · incomplete | Eligible evidence |
 UEFA Nations League | 34 | 18 | 0 | 52 | 100.0% | 82.1% | +17.9 pts | 2/35 | 5.7% · incomplete | Eligible evidence |
 La LigaSpain | 29 | 10 | 0 | 39 | 60.0% | 65.8% | -5.8 pts | 10/25 | 40.0% · incomplete | Building evidence |
| Serie ABrazil | 24 | 9 | 0 | 33 | 71.4% | 69.1% | +2.4 pts | 7/25 | 28.0% · incomplete | Building evidence |
| ChampionshipEngland | 17 | 13 | 0 | 30 | — | — | — | 0/26 | 0.0% · incomplete | Building evidence |
| Jupiler Pro LeagueBelgium | 23 | 7 | 0 | 30 | 83.3% | 71.3% | +12.1 pts | 6/17 | 35.3% · incomplete | Building evidence |
 Premier LeagueEngland | 18 | 12 | 0 | 30 | 28.6% | 70.3% | -41.7 pts | 7/20 | 35.0% · incomplete | Building evidence |
 Serie AItaly | 24 | 6 | 0 | 30 | 77.8% | 66.3% | +11.5 pts | 9/19 | 47.4% · incomplete | Building evidence |
| Primeira LigaPortugal | 20 | 9 | 0 | 29 | 80.0% | 65.5% | +14.5 pts | 5/21 | 23.8% · incomplete | Building evidence |
 BundesligaGermany | 23 | 4 | 0 | 27 | 100.0% | 88.2% | +11.8 pts | 3/7 | 42.9% · incomplete | Building evidence |
 Ligue 1France | 18 | 9 | 0 | 27 | 75.0% | 74.6% | +0.4 pts | 8/20 | 40.0% · incomplete | Building evidence |
Last 90 days
| Competition | Landed | Missed | Void | Settled sample | Actual hit rate | Market baseline | Difference | Covered / eligible | Coverage | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 UEFA Europa Conference League | 168 | 64 | 0 | 232 | — | — | — | 0/217 | 0.0% · incomplete | Strong evidence |
| Major League SoccerUSA | 138 | 47 | 0 | 185 | 85.7% | 65.2% | +20.5 pts | 7/137 | 5.1% · incomplete | Strong evidence |
| FA CupEngland | 98 | 44 | 0 | 142 | 0.0% | 50.3% | -50.3 pts | 2/61 | 3.3% · incomplete | Strong evidence |
| UEFA Nations League | 70 | 34 | 0 | 104 | 100.0% | 82.1% | +17.9 pts | 2/71 | 2.8% · incomplete | Strong evidence |
| Serie ABrazil | 74 | 28 | 0 | 102 | 71.4% | 69.1% | +2.4 pts | 7/90 | 7.8% · incomplete | Strong evidence |
 UEFA Champions League | 63 | 27 | 0 | 90 | — | — | — | 0/80 | 0.0% · incomplete | Eligible evidence |
 UEFA Europa League | 68 | 22 | 0 | 90 | 83.3% | 55.2% | +28.1 pts | 6/80 | 7.5% · incomplete | Eligible evidence |
| Liga Profesional ArgentinaArgentina | 58 | 29 | 0 | 87 | — | — | — | 0/78 | 0.0% · incomplete | Eligible evidence |
| La LigaSpain | 47 | 22 | 0 | 69 | 60.0% | 65.8% | -5.8 pts | 10/54 | 18.5% · incomplete | Eligible evidence |
| ChampionshipEngland | 42 | 23 | 0 | 65 | — | — | — | 0/61 | 0.0% · incomplete | Eligible evidence |
| Jupiler Pro LeagueBelgium | 52 | 11 | 0 | 63 | 83.3% | 71.3% | +12.1 pts | 6/46 | 13.0% · incomplete | Eligible evidence |
| Primeira LigaPortugal | 50 | 12 | 0 | 62 | 80.0% | 65.5% | +14.5 pts | 5/52 | 9.6% · incomplete | Eligible evidence |
| AllsvenskanSweden | 35 | 15 | 0 | 50 | — | — | — | 0/48 | 0.0% · incomplete | Eligible evidence |
| Premier LeagueEngland | 33 | 17 | 0 | 50 | 28.6% | 70.3% | -41.7 pts | 7/39 | 17.9% · incomplete | Eligible evidence |
| Serie AItaly | 39 | 11 | 0 | 50 | 77.8% | 66.3% | +11.5 pts | 9/37 | 24.3% · incomplete | Eligible evidence |
| K League 1South-Korea | 35 | 12 | 0 | 47 | — | — | — | 0/43 | 0.0% · incomplete | Building evidence |
| EliteserienNorway | 33 | 13 | 0 | 46 | — | — | — | 0/40 | 0.0% · incomplete | Building evidence |
| Ligue 1France | 30 | 15 | 0 | 45 | 75.0% | 74.6% | +0.4 pts | 8/35 | 22.9% · incomplete | Building evidence |
| Liga IRomania | 28 | 15 | 0 | 43 | — | — | — | 0/39 | 0.0% · incomplete | Building evidence |
| Liga MXMexico | 26 | 17 | 0 | 43 | — | — | — | 0/43 | 0.0% · incomplete | Building evidence |
| Czech LigaCzech-Republic | 29 | 7 | 0 | 36 | — | — | — | 0/34 | 0.0% · incomplete | Building evidence |
| League CupEngland | 21 | 15 | 0 | 36 | 71.4% | 61.7% | +9.8 pts | 7/31 | 22.6% · incomplete | Building evidence |
| Super LigaSerbia | 23 | 13 | 0 | 36 | — | — | — | 0/35 | 0.0% · incomplete | Building evidence |
| BundesligaGermany | 31 | 4 | 0 | 35 | 100.0% | 88.2% | +11.8 pts | 3/11 | 27.3% · incomplete | Building evidence |
| EkstraklasaPoland | 24 | 11 | 0 | 35 | — | — | — | 0/34 | 0.0% · incomplete | Building evidence |
| J1 LeagueJapan | 27 | 3 | 0 | 30 | — | — | — | 0/30 | 0.0% · incomplete | Building evidence |
| SuperligaDenmark | 21 | 6 | 0 | 27 | — | — | — | 0/23 | 0.0% · incomplete | Building evidence |
| Ligue 2France | 23 | 3 | 0 | 26 | — | — | — | 0/25 | 0.0% · incomplete | Building evidence |
| EredivisieNetherlands | 18 | 6 | 0 | 24 | — | — | — | 0/20 | 0.0% · incomplete | Building evidence |
| Taça de PortugalPortugal | 18 | 5 | 0 | 23 | — | — | — | 0/16 | 0.0% · incomplete | Building evidence |
| Premier LeagueUkraine | 19 | 3 | 0 | 22 | — | — | — | 0/22 | 0.0% · incomplete | Building evidence |
| BundesligaAustria | 14 | 7 | 0 | 21 | — | — | — | 0/19 | 0.0% · incomplete | Building evidence |
| Super LeagueSwitzerland | 15 | 6 | 0 | 21 | — | — | — | 0/17 | 0.0% · incomplete | Building evidence |
| Segunda DivisiónSpain | 15 | 5 | 0 | 20 | — | — | — | 0/18 | 0.0% · incomplete | Building evidence |
| USL League OneUSA | 17 | 3 | 0 | 20 | — | — | — | 0/20 | 0.0% · incomplete | Building evidence |
All time
| Competition | Landed | Missed | Void | Settled sample | Actual hit rate | Market baseline | Difference | Covered / eligible | Coverage | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UEFA Europa Conference League | 168 | 66 | 0 | 234 | — | — | — | 0/219 | 0.0% · incomplete | Strong evidence |
| Major League SoccerUSA | 151 | 50 | 0 | 201 | 85.7% | 65.2% | +20.5 pts | 7/152 | 4.6% · incomplete | Strong evidence |
| FA CupEngland | 98 | 44 | 0 | 142 | 0.0% | 50.3% | -50.3 pts | 2/61 | 3.3% · incomplete | Strong evidence |
| Serie ABrazil | 90 | 32 | 0 | 122 | 71.4% | 69.1% | +2.4 pts | 7/108 | 6.5% · incomplete | Strong evidence |
| UEFA Nations League | 70 | 34 | 0 | 104 | 100.0% | 82.1% | +17.9 pts | 2/71 | 2.8% · incomplete | Strong evidence |
| World Cup | 87 | 13 | 0 | 100 | — | — | — | 0/95 | 0.0% · incomplete | Strong evidence |
| Friendlies | 77 | 19 | 0 | 96 | — | — | — | 0/94 | 0.0% · incomplete | Eligible evidence |
| UEFA Champions League | 64 | 27 | 0 | 91 | — | — | — | 0/81 | 0.0% · incomplete | Eligible evidence |
| UEFA Europa League | 69 | 22 | 0 | 91 | 83.3% | 55.2% | +28.1 pts | 6/81 | 7.4% · incomplete | Eligible evidence |
| Liga Profesional ArgentinaArgentina | 58 | 30 | 0 | 88 | — | — | — | 0/79 | 0.0% · incomplete | Eligible evidence |
| La LigaSpain | 55 | 24 | 0 | 79 | 60.0% | 65.8% | -5.8 pts | 10/64 | 15.6% · incomplete | Eligible evidence |
| Jupiler Pro LeagueBelgium | 65 | 12 | 0 | 77 | 83.3% | 71.3% | +12.1 pts | 6/60 | 10.0% · incomplete | Eligible evidence |
| AllsvenskanSweden | 48 | 21 | 0 | 69 | — | — | — | 0/67 | 0.0% · incomplete | Eligible evidence |
| ChampionshipEngland | 43 | 23 | 0 | 66 | — | — | — | 0/62 | 0.0% · incomplete | Eligible evidence |
| EliteserienNorway | 45 | 19 | 0 | 64 | — | — | — | 0/58 | 0.0% · incomplete | Eligible evidence |
| Primeira LigaPortugal | 51 | 13 | 0 | 64 | 80.0% | 65.5% | +14.5 pts | 5/54 | 9.3% · incomplete | Eligible evidence |
| Premier LeagueEngland | 40 | 21 | 0 | 61 | 28.6% | 70.3% | -41.7 pts | 7/50 | 14.0% · incomplete | Eligible evidence |
| Serie AItaly | 46 | 13 | 0 | 59 | 77.8% | 66.3% | +11.5 pts | 9/46 | 19.6% · incomplete | Eligible evidence |
| J1 LeagueJapan | 47 | 10 | 0 | 57 | — | — | — | 0/57 | 0.0% · incomplete | Eligible evidence |
| Liga IRomania | 38 | 18 | 0 | 56 | — | — | — | 0/52 | 0.0% · incomplete | Eligible evidence |
| K League 1South-Korea | 35 | 12 | 0 | 47 | — | — | — | 0/43 | 0.0% · incomplete | Building evidence |
| Ligue 1France | 31 | 16 | 0 | 47 | 75.0% | 74.6% | +0.4 pts | 8/37 | 21.6% · incomplete | Building evidence |
| Liga MXMexico | 28 | 18 | 0 | 46 | — | — | — | 0/46 | 0.0% · incomplete | Building evidence |
| Segunda DivisiónSpain | 34 | 12 | 0 | 46 | — | — | — | 0/42 | 0.0% · incomplete | Building evidence |
| CONMEBOL Libertadores | 37 | 8 | 0 | 45 | — | — | — | 0/42 | 0.0% · incomplete | Building evidence |
| EkstraklasaPoland | 32 | 13 | 0 | 45 | — | — | — | 0/44 | 0.0% · incomplete | Building evidence |
| Czech LigaCzech-Republic | 32 | 12 | 0 | 44 | — | — | — | 0/40 | 0.0% · incomplete | Building evidence |
| Super LigaSerbia | 30 | 14 | 0 | 44 | — | — | — | 0/43 | 0.0% · incomplete | Building evidence |
| BundesligaGermany | 32 | 5 | 0 | 37 | 100.0% | 88.2% | +11.8 pts | 3/13 | 23.1% · incomplete | Building evidence |
| League CupEngland | 21 | 15 | 0 | 36 | 71.4% | 61.7% | +9.8 pts | 7/31 | 22.6% · incomplete | Building evidence |
| Premier LeagueUkraine | 30 | 6 | 0 | 36 | — | — | — | 0/36 | 0.0% · incomplete | Building evidence |
| Ligue 2France | 25 | 3 | 0 | 28 | — | — | — | 0/27 | 0.0% · incomplete | Building evidence |
| SuperligaDenmark | 22 | 6 | 0 | 28 | — | — | — | 0/24 | 0.0% · incomplete | Building evidence |
| Pro LeagueSaudi-Arabia | 20 | 6 | 0 | 26 | — | — | — | 0/26 | 0.0% · incomplete | Building evidence |
| EredivisieNetherlands | 18 | 7 | 0 | 25 | — | — | — | 0/21 | 0.0% · incomplete | Building evidence |
| BundesligaAustria | 16 | 8 | 0 | 24 | — | — | — | 0/22 | 0.0% · incomplete | Building evidence |
| HNLCroatia | 21 | 3 | 0 | 24 | — | — | — | 0/23 | 0.0% · incomplete | Building evidence |
| Super LeagueSwitzerland | 16 | 7 | 0 | 23 | — | — | — | 0/19 | 0.0% · incomplete | Building evidence |
| Taça de PortugalPortugal | 18 | 5 | 0 | 23 | — | — | — | 0/16 | 0.0% · incomplete | Building evidence |
| USL League OneUSA | 17 | 3 | 0 | 20 | — | — | — | 0/20 | 0.0% · incomplete | Building evidence |
Internal Score Calibration Evidence
This internal learning evidence compares raw score cohorts with their observed outcomes. It remains separate from P1.2's canonical public confidence projection and is not used as a public probability owner.
| Internal score cohort | Settled sample | Landed | Missed | Observed hit rate | Avg internal score | Calibration gap | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <60 | 52 | 42 | 10 | 80.8% | 56.4/100 | +24.3 pts | Underconfident |
| 60-65 | 112 | 75 | 37 | 67.0% | 62.3/100 | +4.6 pts | Underconfident |
| 65-70 | 155 | 114 | 41 | 73.5% | 67.0/100 | +6.5 pts | Underconfident |
| 70-75 | 397 | 267 | 130 | 67.3% | 71.8/100 | -4.6 pts | Overconfident |
| 75-80 | 301 | 218 | 83 | 72.4% | 77.0/100 | -4.6 pts | Overconfident |
| 80-85 | 467 | 351 | 116 | 75.2% | 82.1/100 | -6.9 pts | Overconfident |
| 85-90 | 282 | 201 | 81 | 71.3% | 86.8/100 | -15.5 pts | Overconfident |
| 90+ | 268 | 226 | 42 | 84.3% | 93.4/100 | -9.0 pts | Overconfident |
Public Calibrated Confidence
The public confidence owner uses only canonical settled Main Tips. It fits monotone broad-band rates with pool-adjacent-violators on the earlier chronological evidence, then checks the final held-out period. Exact confidence is shown only for a band with at least 100 training samples, 50 held-out samples and a held-out gap of 5 percentage points or less. Otherwise public surfaces show a band and historical landed rate, never a raw trust score.
Mapping
p1.2-settled-main-tip-pav-v1
Evidence window
2026-05-18 — 2026-10-08
Settled sample
2775
Held-out sample
833
| Public band | Settled sample | Historical landed rate | Held-out sample | Held-out gap | Public output |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low confidence | 164 | 72.0% | 151 | +0.4 pts | Band and historical rate only |
| Moderate confidence | 1532 | 70.4% | 403 | +0.1 pts | Exact calibrated confidence: 70.6% |
| High confidence | 1079 | 77.9% | 279 | +4.1 pts | Exact calibrated confidence: 79.0% |
Failure Patterns
Missed Main Tips are classified into a fixed, deterministic set of failure categories. Only aggregate counts of losses are published — no individual match, fixture or underlying evidence is exposed, and a win is never counted here even when it was, in hindsight, under-confident.
386 classified missed Main Tips from 1411 settled predictions examined, 10 July 2026 — 7 October 2026.
| Category | Count | Share of classified | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Result went the other way | 342 | 88.6% | Strong evidence |
| Confidence overestimated | 33 | 8.5% | Building evidence |
What the Evidence Supports
Each statement below is generated from the tables above and is only produced when its own cohort reached at least 50 settled predictions.
- BetLogic Main Tips recorded 70.6% landed outcomes across 608 settled predictions in September 2026 (429 landed, 179 missed, 0 void).
- BetLogic Main Tips recorded 72.4% landed outcomes across 2286 settled predictions over the last 90 days (1656 landed, 630 missed, 0 void).
- BetLogic Main Tips recorded 73.4% landed outcomes across 2776 settled predictions across the published record to date (2038 landed, 738 missed, 0 void).
- Double Chance markets recorded 73.0% landed outcomes across 355 settled Main Tips in September 2026.
- Goals markets recorded 68.9% landed outcomes across 212 settled Main Tips in September 2026.
- Double Chance markets recorded 73.4% landed outcomes across 1847 settled Main Tips over the last 90 days.
- Goals markets recorded 70.5% landed outcomes across 359 settled Main Tips over the last 90 days.
- Double Chance markets recorded 74.5% landed outcomes across 2322 settled Main Tips across the published record to date.
- Goals markets recorded 70.3% landed outcomes across 370 settled Main Tips across the published record to date.
- Both Teams to Score markets recorded 56.0% landed outcomes across 50 settled Main Tips across the published record to date.
- FA Cup Main Tips recorded 66.0% landed outcomes across 97 settled predictions in September 2026.
- Major League Soccer Main Tips recorded 76.7% landed outcomes across 73 settled predictions in September 2026.
- UEFA Nations League Main Tips recorded 65.4% landed outcomes across 52 settled predictions in September 2026.
- UEFA Europa Conference League Main Tips recorded 72.4% landed outcomes across 232 settled predictions over the last 90 days.
- Major League Soccer Main Tips recorded 74.6% landed outcomes across 185 settled predictions over the last 90 days.
- FA Cup Main Tips recorded 69.0% landed outcomes across 142 settled predictions over the last 90 days.
- UEFA Europa Conference League Main Tips recorded 71.8% landed outcomes across 234 settled predictions across the published record to date.
- Major League Soccer Main Tips recorded 75.1% landed outcomes across 201 settled predictions across the published record to date.
- FA Cup Main Tips recorded 69.0% landed outcomes across 142 settled predictions across the published record to date.
- The 80-85 internal-score cohort was overconfident across 467 settled samples: observed hit rate was 75.2%, compared with an average internal score of 82.1/100.
- The 70-75 internal-score cohort was overconfident across 397 settled samples: observed hit rate was 67.3%, compared with an average internal score of 71.8/100.
- The 75-80 internal-score cohort was overconfident across 301 settled samples: observed hit rate was 72.4%, compared with an average internal score of 77.0/100.
- "Result went the other way" was the most frequently classified error category in this research window, appearing 342 times across 386 classified samples.
Limitations
- Sample thresholds (20 / 50 / 100 settled) control publication eligibility only. They are conservative product gates and do not claim formal statistical significance.
- This research is descriptive. It reports what settled results show and does not establish cause or skill.
- ROI is unavailable because BetLogic did not store verified decision-time decimal odds for this historical sample. It is never reconstructed from implied probability.
- BetLogic Brier remains unavailable: P1.2 publishes a qualified band-level calibration mapping, not a retrospective per-selection probability scorecard.
- Void, unresolved and unsupported predictions never enter the hit-rate denominator.
- Historical performance does not guarantee future results.
Methodology
Research evidence can inform future BetLogic methodology changes, but this report does not claim a public methodology change unless that change is separately documented in the public Prediction Methodology. Internal prediction rules, configuration and reasoning traces are not published.
Underlying Data
Performance, market and competition figures on this page are derived from BetLogic's published settled Main Tip record. The Prediction Dataset contains the machine-readable settled predictions, and Prediction Performance shows the same canonical record as headline windows and breakdowns.
Calibration and failure-pattern research uses deterministic internal learning evidence from settled predictions. Only aggregate, public-safe results are published; internal rules, traces and per-match evidence remain private.