Belgium vs Italy: Brussels decider puts Mancini's leaders and Van Bommel under pressure

Belgium and Italy enter Sunday's Nations League finale in Brussels with barely a point separating them and potentially enormous consequences attached to the result. Italy lead League A Group A1 on ten points, level with France, while Belgium have nine. Roberto Mancini's Azzurri can book a quarter-final place by avoiding defeat; Mark van Bommel's Belgium must win to guarantee one. That contrast should shape the match: Italy can be patient without becoming passive, whereas the hosts need to create enough attacking pressure to take three points against a side arriving in excellent form.

The match begins at 20:45 local time at King Baudouin Stadium. At precisely the same time France face Türkiye in Bordeaux, meaning the final positions in Group A1 cannot be assessed from the Brussels result alone. UEFA's published scenarios are unambiguous about the key thresholds. Italy will finish first if they win, or if they draw and France do not win. Belgium can still win the group if they beat Italy and France fail to defeat Türkiye. Türkiye, with no points, are already confirmed fourth.

Italy's turnaround gives Mancini the clearer route

Italy's position is striking because they lost their first group match 2–0 at home to Belgium in September. They subsequently beat Türkiye twice, drew 1–1 away to France and then defeated France 3–1 in Milan on Thursday. Francesco Pio Esposito scored twice in that latest result, overturning the early French advantage and giving Italy both a points boost and a performance to build on. The Azzurri now have the chance to convert a strong recovery into a place in the quarter-finals with a result in Brussels.

The recovery has been achieved through goals from different areas of the side rather than a single veteran forward monopolising the attacking output. Against France, Italy had to respond after conceding early, found the equaliser and then delivered a decisive second-half contribution from Pio Esposito and his team-mates. Belgium should not assume that the visitors will arrive merely to defend the draw they need. A team that has just beaten one of its principal rivals can threaten whenever opponents lose defensive structure.

Cambiaghi is ruled out after the France match

Italy's preparation suffered a fresh setback on Saturday. The Italian Football Federation announced that Nicolò Cambiaghi had not recovered from the ankle injury suffered against France and would leave the national-team camp, making him unavailable in Brussels. It is a confirmed absence rather than an inferred injury based on missing training. The information is particularly relevant because a quick turnaround between Thursday and Sunday reduces the options for testing new combinations before the last group fixture.

The FIGC had already announced another change on 7 November: Roma defender Gianluca Mancini withdrew through injury, while Udinese's Matteo Palma received his first senior call-up after approval of his change of international eligibility. Federico Gatti subsequently joined the group as another defensive option. Those call-ups demonstrate the depth of the squad, but they do not establish who Mancini will start against Belgium. Selection must be judged from the official lineups, not from a speculative list that treats every squad member as match-ready.

Van Bommel's side have momentum, but a draw may not be enough

Belgium opened their Nations League campaign with a 2–0 win away to Italy, lost 1–0 at home to France, beat Türkiye 3–0 in Brussels and then suffered a 4–1 defeat in France. Thursday's 2–1 win in Türkiye restored their prospects of reaching the quarter-finals, with Kevin De Bruyne and Charles De Ketelaere contributing the decisive goals after the hosts had opened the scoring through Arda Güler. The recovery matters because Belgium now have a second chance against the opponent they beat in September.

However, Belgium cannot simply replicate their earlier defensive approach and assume a point will suffice. Their position is one behind the two leaders, and UEFA guarantees a top-two finish only if they win against Italy. That encourages controlled ambition: finding spaces for De Bruyne to deliver final passes, making use of De Ketelaere between the lines and preventing Italy from turning turnovers into chances for Pio Esposito. Belgium need a forward-looking plan without leaving themselves exposed to the same late defensive problems that contributed to the heavy loss in France.

The first meeting and simultaneous France match complicate the picture

Belgium's 2–0 away win in September is an important reference because it proves they have already found an effective approach against Mancini's side. Yet Italy's subsequent recovery makes a simple repeat unlikely. The standings have changed, both teams have completed five matches and Sunday's result carries greater consequences. For Italy, a draw is sufficient to progress; for Belgium, a win directly secures progression. Any wider ambition to finish top also depends on what France do in Bordeaux.

One particularly dangerous editorial shortcut would be to label either team already qualified. UEFA's table shows that Italy and France each have ten points and Belgium nine; only two places are available. Belgium can still overtake Italy. Equally, describing Italy as needing victory is incorrect because a draw guarantees their berth. The proper analysis must account for the possible final ties in points as well as the fact that France–Türkiye starts at the same time.

BetLogic assessment

This is a genuine quarter-final decider, not a routine final group match. Italy carry form, a one-point advantage and the knowledge that a draw will be enough, though Cambiaghi's confirmed absence complicates attacking rotation. Belgium have their September win in Italy and the momentum of a comeback victory in Türkiye, but a draw is a risk they cannot comfortably take. The key moments will likely be the teams' responses when possession changes hands and when news from Bordeaux affects the standings. Lineups and in-game decisions, not a predicted starting eleven, should determine the final assessment.